PGA Championship Picks and Preview

After a week hiatus and recovering from a trip to Vegas, I am back to take a look at the year’s second major — The PGA Championship.

The tournament is being played at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY, a semi-familiar site to seasoned fans of golf, having hosted three PGA’s and Ryder Cup, all since 1996.

PGA Championship Picks

• 0.3u - Bryson Dechambeau 28/1

• 0.3u - Wyndham Clark 37/1 *Future

• 0.25u - Cam Young 50/1

• 0.20u - Sahith Theegala 65/1 (also bet at 70/1 on CZ)

• *check back in for any additional props/finish position/etc throughout the week!

I’m not overly intimate with this course nor have I been grinding tape of the 2000 (Woods) and 2014 (McIlroy) like most of my twitter timeline appears to be doing but I’ll take the approach I do for most PGA Championship (and US Opens for that matter) — long off the tee and an all around above average game in all skill sets, and not a shocking winner. The definition of shocking will differ depending on how much a person follows the game. Personally, I feel you have to go a LONG way back to find one. While perhaps, per the odds, Brian Harman’s victory or even Phil Mickelsons triumph, would be deemed to shocking to many, I’d label them more of a surprise, as I would Wyndham Clarks US Open and Danny Willett’s Masters.

Generally it’s next to impossible to find outside of 3-4 guys who are playing at an elite level across all areas at the time of a single event, and this year it feels improbably to find anybody who you think can hold up to Scottie Scheffler (who will perhaps still be on…baby watch).

Valhalla will be played as a par 71, stretching out 7,609 yards with bent grass greens. If you’re into the weeds and like to compare courses, the other two tournaments played on bent grass so far this year have been The Masters and Byron Nelson. I also read a note that in 2021 is when Valhalla made the switch to zoysia fairways so if you’re deep diving into the last 2 PGA Championships the course may play differently, for numerous reasons such as grass, length additions, etc. (and honestly I’m not sure how much you’re actually learning from tournaments hosted 24 and 10 years ago).

The course is long, simply put. There are only four par 4s on the card under 450 yards, and there are five listed at longer than 485. They even have a 250 yard par 3 but we will have to wait and see where the tees are come play time. Again, scorecards only tell a portion of the story and with as long as Tour golf is now, the yardage seems more daunting than it probably is. Sure, a chunk of this field will be at a large disadvantage this week but those same golfers probably are most weeks, with a wider chasm at Valhalla. It feels like a course that is going to give us a wide scoring margin, with those at the top shooting into the mid-teens but that is simply a gut guess.

As usual, my view on golf betting is that most people over complicate it because they don’t have the background or knowledge to get deeper into the minutia of all the data available to the public. And while that may drive the market as a whole, particularly on sharp books, even taking a simpler approach can lead to gains for the casual bettor. This week I kept it fairly simple, starting with my baseline skill rating and tweaking for length, and not getting cute with much else. Major golf brings out the best and while form can be key, sometimes it’s hard to look past a large number on talent, even if out of form.

Let’s start with Wyndham Clark (37/1), who I bet back in March while he was going through a wonderful, but inconsistent stretch, they doesn’t seemed to have changed much. Simply put, he was not good at Quail Hollow. That said, he was a win and three other T3’s dating back to Pebble Beach, with a T41, cut, T31, cut, and now a T47. The inconsistent play is just something to be accepted right now but it hasn’t seemed to have been sticking. He’s long off the tee, the approach game is generally well above average and what he may lack with his chipping he makes up for with his putter. And if he doesn’t win I will still be interested in where he finishes because while he is a major champion, his track record at Majors outside of that victory is putrid.

Is Sahith Theegala (65/1) ready to win a major? It would be quite the step up considering he has a single PGA Tour victory but he’s got the game and he’s shown up in big spots this year and competed. Hopefully that scar tissue is enough to propel him if he finds himself near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. His ball striking has taken a major leap forward this season and he continues to be consistently good on the greens as well. It’s a very similar data profile to Clark — including the shakey history at majors. I would not be shocked if he won at Valhalla, which should setup fairly nicely, but I would be surprised. I think the number is good though for the overall form he’s in this year should be a confidence boost (despite the 82 he fired in round three at Quail Hollow). Oddly enough he fired a career high in strokes gained with his irons in round 2…goes to show how finicky this game can be…as if we weren’t aware!

Is Cam Young (50/1) as gutless as a Halloween pumpkin? Probably. BUT YOU CAN’T STOP ME! If you can look past that he has everything you want for Valhalla and the major track record of solid finishes to boot. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t shake my head as I bet it but I have a habit of betting losers that eventually win. You generally are not getting great numbers on golfers everybody wants to bet. Cam Young at 20/1? No thank you, but I’ll keep going back to the well at venues that should benefit great driving when he’s post at these odds. Hell, you might find even better after things reset Monday morning! His iron play, on average, has improved this year compared to last year, which I wasn’t sure would happen, and his elite driving has continued.

Last, but not least, we have Bryson Dechambeau (28/1). I still am not entirely sure how to quantify what I see on the LIV Tour. What I mean is that, while there are plenty of taleneted golfers in each field, there are also a bunch of squids that would struggle to hold a tour card. The three rounds trip me up as well and perhaps that’s just me overthinking it. Not in a sense of fatigue but more in the sense of, after a poor round 1, how much focus is given? What results matter if a golfer opened up with a bad round 1? I have similar thoughts about PGA event and golfers who barely make the cut but with more events/stats I am able to more easily add some context. That said, Bryson’s lenght should be a great weapon this week and I was happy to see how he played at The Masters. Perhaps he’s learning that while the distance is a weapon, the Kraken doesn’t need to always be unleashed. He is highly talented and if he’s now curtailing his game to better suit on a hole by hole basis, he’s even more dangerous. We don’t get many chances to see strokes gained data from him but when we do he continues to excel OTT and more often than not his irons have been great as well. I’m projecting a bit extra on his skill and fit more than anything else but I think the fact he’s on LIV — and currently shadowed by Scheffler’s run, Brooks just winning, and Rory just winning — we’re getting quite a great price for the talent and potential.

Mizuho Americas Open

• 0.30u - Charley Hull 28/1

• 0.35u - Linn Grant 30/1

• 0.30u - Gabi Ruffels 65/1

• 0.15u - Esther Henseleit 70/1 e.w.

Public Results (as of 5.12.24)

2024 | +16.0u (26.7% ROI)

2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)

2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)

2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)