Wyndham Championship Picks and Preview
Women's Olympic Golf
While not a winner, Guseva made a nice push on the weekend after an abysmal Friday and managed to get a full place, @ 16.5/1 which at least made the week positive! The Men’s Olympic final round was awesome to watch and the lore of the event continues to grow. I mentioned on twitter, like many else, that the presitige we look back at the Olympic medals will at some point reach the level of a major. It could be 20 years, but with it being so rare and more and more prominent winners…history will look fondly on these wins.
I posted all of my women’s picks for the Olympics in last weeks newsletter but here is a refresher. I believe most of the numbers have evaporated…
Women’s Olympic Golf Picks
0.4u - Rose Zhang 25/1
0.1u - Maja Stark 80/1 ew
0.1u - Nanna Koerstz Madsen 100/1 ew
0.07u - Aditi Ashok 150/1 ew
0.07u - Paula Reto 200/1 ew
We have made it to the final week of the PGA Tour’s “regular season”. This is the last chance for golfers to try and make their way inside the top 70 golfers to advance to the FedEx Cup Playoffs (although it’s not exactly a playoff is it).
For all the Tour’s misgivings (my opinion) I do enjoy that they lowered the threshold to T70 instead of starting at T125. As more sports expand their playoffs to allow for more teams, I am of the firm belief in making the playoffs more difficult to make. The leagues want money but it takes away from the season. There needs to be more pressure and more stakes week in, week out, and expanding playoffs has the opposite effect.
So, as the Tour arrives in Greensboro, there will be some sweats. Honestly, there are probably only a handful of golfers that can play their way in or out of the first playoff event at FedEx St. Jude — but after that, it is cut to 50, and then 30 for the Tour Championship.
I do believe it is a difficult ask for the Tour to make these playoffs exciting, considering the pinnacle of this sport are the Majors, which are not owned by the PGA Tour and are not part of the playoff events. But similar to The Masters or even the Olympics, I think they could make them even more exclusive, truly rewarding only the top players of the calendar year, culminating in a small, match play event. I realize that may not appeal to many either but if I had the chance to set it up, the final event would be either the top 8 or top 16 battling it out, head to head. It would be an elite group of golfers most years and perhaps those who miss out would play more events in the future, knowing it may cost them taking extra weeks off? Again, I have no idea I’m just rambling my own wishlist!
Wyndham Championship Picks
0.50u - Sungjae Im 18/1
0.25u - Aaron Rai 50/1 each-way
The tournament will take place at Sedgefield Country Club, a par 70 course listed at 7,131 yards. There are plenty of birdies to be made at this Donald Ross design and those who show up without a putter will find themselves falling to the back of the pack.
Playing from the fairway is paramount. While the rough itself is not lethal, the GIR rate from the fairway is amoung the highest on Tour, as are the approach gained numbers. Pins are easy to attack at this course from the short stuff and golfers will be behind the 8-ball if they aren’t hitting greens at above a 70% clip.
The most difficult shots at Sedgefiled have been chips, but if a golfer is having to chip often, it may not matter how well they’re chipping because they will be fading. GIR rates are regularly over 70% at Sedgefield and the top of the leaderboard is generally pushing 75-80% on the week. Strokes need to be gained through approach and putting to be in contention. Sounds like most weeks doesn’t it? But there really is less of an emphasis on gaining OTT and ARG. As long as you aren’t driving the ball wild, you’ll be playing a similar routing as the rest of the field, which is why there isn’t necessarily a lot to be gained OTT and separation will need to come with approach and sinking putts.
That leads me directly to the fields favorite this week, Sungaje Im (18/1). I was shocked to see that number next to his name when the markets opened this morning. He has the best form coming into the field and if you’re into course history, you will love that too (3 T10’s in 5 events). Im consistently gains OTT and mainly due to his accurate driving; while he’s not a short hitter, he’s field average but well above at finding fairways. His slow start to the year turned at the start of summer and he’s only lost strokes with his irons once dating back to May, and while his putter does at times disappear, that too, has been a bright spot. He has no real weakness and in this field, he is the best all around golfer, with his best attributes suiting Sedgefield CC.
Aaron Rai (50/1) may not be quite as good overall as Im, but his game is fairly similar, propelled by an accurate driver and precise irons. He has five straight T20’s coming into The Open (T75) and has played the best golf of his career in 2024. His short game, mainly his putting, has improved drastically and he will need it this week to succeed. It could be his downfall but 50/1 was too much to pass up. I truly believe he should have been 30/1 in this field.
I realize that by the time this has been published, these lines often move. The only remedy I have for that is posting them to X/Twitter ahead of this publishing, which I regularly do. If you’re not on X, there is nothing more for me really to do. Sundays and Mondays are busy days and this is typcially the soonest I can publish.
You can follow me on X/Twitter here!
Public Results (as of 7.28.23)
2024 | +53.7 (58.2% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)