Week 9: PGA Cognizant Classic Picks, DPWT SDC Championship Picks, LPGA HSBC Women's Championship Picks
Another runner on the DPWT that couldn’t cross the finish line (Van Velzen). MacIntyre showed signs of life in Mexico but it was a little too late to ever have actually been in contention, and so it was a completely dead week on the PGA Tour and LPGA Tour. Full year results are at the bottom of the newsletter as always.
Cognizant Classic Picks
Sepp Straka 45/1
Corey Conners 50/1
Adam Svensson 55/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 75/1
It is Honda-err….Cognizant Classic week on the PGA Tour as the field assembles in West Palm Beach to kick off the Florida-swing of the season. While the name has changed the venue has not — PGA National will play host again and for the most part I believe we know what to expect. Non-flushers need not apply. What more of a course fit do you need than that?
Note: The 10th hole will play as a par 5 this year
Of the last 10 winners and runners-up it is peppered with vacation-to-Mexico level flushing (I’m sorry). Matt Jones, who of course won by five, is the one that sticks out as a career non-flusher but the rest habitually do most of their gaining through ball-striking on a relatively even level of approach and off the tee.
There is danger lurking everywhere at PGA National and while I don’t have a direct comparrison in front of me, if you’re into comp courses, perhaps take a look at another Florida course — TPC Sawgrass. Also full of danger, bermuda grass, and an emphasis on strong driving and approach play. They aren’t exactly a one for one but what two courses are? We do are best to try and scrape any possible connection searching for winners, which is a difficult task.
PGA National is more demanding though, with more approach shots coming at a distance but more forgiving OTT (as far as misses go compared to TPC Sawgrass). Distance, while not at Wells Fargo levels of advantage, is still preferred to accuracy so why not target both?
Of the four golfers I bet, only Bezuidenhout struggles OTT but with how strong his iron play has been it was enough to push him over the line for me at 75/1. His approach play has been incredible in 2024 and while his ARG game has taken a dip (not unheard of) he remains a remarkable putter which is always nice to have in your back pocket.
Straka, Conners, and Svensson each have above Tour level accuracy and distance OTT, while gaining with their irons as well. It was a fairly simple formula for me this week and while there are plenty of golfers with the skill set to win at PGA National, I rolled the dice in the mid-range instead of up top. I have a lot of dead bet slips from the runners-up column above and would like to change that this week. PGA National owes me.
SDC Championship Picks
Antione Rozner 22/1
Ryan Van Velzen 55/1
Matthias Schwab 125/1
HSBC Women’s Championship Picks
Alison Lee 22/1
Yuka Saso 50/1
Mone Inami 125/1
I’m tickeled. I absolutely LOVE the numbers I grabbed on the LPGA side of things this week, which I’m sure will end in a ball of fire and rubble. Alison Lee has the best form in the world — the hangup is that since her incredible run of 2-1-2-2, she hasn’t played. I don’t think she suddenly forgot but that is a concern and while I generally don’t put a ton of stock into “rust”, a majority of this field has been in competitive tournaments over the last three weeks.
I bet Inami early on this year - a new face on the LPGA Tour via winning a card at the Japan Classic - and while she started off slow, her play picked up. She finished 19th at the Tournament of Champions and followed that with an 8th place at the Drive On Championship. Perhaps not a prolific winner, 125/1 is far too long for her abilities.
Public Results
2024 | +5.0u (11.9% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)