Week 6: PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open
DPWT Singapore Classic
Quick Recap
The good? Pierceson Coody 80/1 WINNER! Not having (easy) access to KFT each-way wagering or event positional finishes is going to sting some weeks but NOT TODAY! What a way to start KFT betting. I should probably quit. Not a massive win since I’m still tracking the initial model, but it feels good, considering the PGA/DPWT was garbage for a second straight week.
The bad? Pretty well everything else. What an absolute shit-show out at Pebble Beach. I’m a bit disappointed in myself. I saw the forecasts and outside of chasing a few weather angles I probably should have scrapped the week; and even chasing weather angles doesn’t always work out because the weather doesn’t care to stay on the forecast and as we saw play was event stopped which threw it all off. I regret a lot from this week, and I am happy to be moving on to an awesome event with an amazing field.
For full results, scroll to the bottom of the newsletter! You will also find my outright picks for the weeks as well as any other markets I add in addition.
I would implore you (if you have the time) to always be digging through the markets that are offered for golf. There are so many options, and with more options, are potential edges. Edges can dry up quickly, especially the big ones that make you think you’ve seeing things wrong (but you’re not).
Betting for a profit is not simply about creating a model and picking winners. It’s also about knowing your sport(s) (and the basic numbers) well enough to pick off “bad” lines and take advantage when new markets are opened.
Line shopping is another great place to start. If there is one book that is off market enough to notice, ask yourself why that could be? Is the book a market maker/setter? Is it a sharp or recreational book? If you can’t think of a reason why the number would be so different perhaps, they are just slow to move it or taking an odd stance. In either case, you have potentially found yourself a wager…
Anyway! Onward we march…
Waste Management Phoenix Open
This event grew its own identity over time which has culminated into being one of the PGA Tour’s “Designated Events” for the 2023 season.
To be honest, it probably didn’t need this designation considering the brand has slowly been building towards one of the most “must watch” events on Tour outside of the majors.
While not perfect (how many really are?) I do like TPC Scottsdale. Perhaps it’s a bit forgettable on the front but the closing stretch is outstanding. Starting from the 13th to close, golfers will face two par 5’s, one of which is an island green approach, the famous Par 3-16th, and a drivable par 4 with water lurking all around. The 18th was made a bit more mundane after some changes but if there are nerves on the tee, bail out drives can still find a pew-lined bunker down the left or rolling hills of rough on the right.
There is one angle that I think gets overlooked most years when it comes to TPC Scottsdale and that is accuracy off the tee. You will hear all about distance, which itself is a larger advantage this week, but it can be equaled by finding fairways at a high clip. Let’s look at a few reasons why…
Intuitively, the further away an approach shot is the more skill will separate golfers. Yes, superior wedge play is important but even an “average” shot from 100 yards leaves a makable putt. As the approach distance increases, so the does gap between a very good iron shot and an average iron shot. TPC Scottsdale leaves the field with more approaches further away than the average Tour course. Of course, over 18 holes, it may not seem like a large difference, but all these fractions of a stroke add up. When you’re trying to create the most optimal ratings for simulating an event 20,000 times these small differences matter. That is where you can find edges to generate positive expected value over a large sample, such as an entire golf year. If you’re simply looking to build a DFS lineup to dump in a few contests or take a couple outright winners, it probably matters less to you - which is fine. I understand most people have no interest in breaking down golf by the fraction of a stroke.
Another reason golfers can gain an edge through accuracy at TPC Scottsdale is how much easier it has been to attack the greens from the fairway. There are plenty of opportunities to make birdie and eagle — but when approaching from the fairway compared to the rough, it makes quite a drastic impact on finding the putting surface.
I mentioned the gap widening between great iron shots and average iron shots from the fairway as the distance away from the hole increases. Well, the gap isn’t quite as wide when it comes to approach shots from the rough. So, while the fairway is still preferred, the advantage isn’t quite as large. Now imagine the difference between a great shot from the fairway and an average shot from the rough…real gains are being made (assuming approach distance is the same from fairway and from rough).
GIR Fairway to rough Advantage - 25.4%
Fairway RTP Advantage | 0.32 strokes
Driving Distance all P4/5’s | 303 yds
Overall, the importance that TPC Scottsdale puts on driving can be massive. So, while I pointed out that golfers who are long or accurate can still find an advantage — those with both can separate. Think Hideki Matsuyama (back-to-back winner), Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Cam Young…to name a few.
Of course, driving alone won’t this this tournament but without it a golfer can forget about winning.
The course is quite possibly one of the premier stops for a true ball-striking test. The advantage gained OTT coupled with approach shots that aren’t all wedges truly puts an emphasis on this skill set and allows for separation on many of the holes. There is often a correlation between great driving and long iron play which can be seen in the history of this event.
I adjusted up for both distance and accuracy (in values of strokes gained per yard or fairway better than field) based on expectations I set. The key point being, I want to focus on good drivers. While I would prefer, they gain strokes through distance, accuracy is still good. I also adjusted up iron play in general, though would put the preference on 150-200 yards if you have that ability.
Again, it’s mainly splitting hairs. I’m trying to separate golfers by fractions of strokes and then using 30,000 simulations to create my numbers. I understand this isn’t for everybody and it doesn’t necessarily need to be. I’m just sharing how I go about it which gives some context to the things I write about and why I think they matter.
Singapore Classic Notes
A few words, nothing crazy. I read through a hole-by-hole breakdown and on paper the course seems quite interesting. Rolling, with plenty of bunkers protecting greens and common landing zones for drives. There are places to rip driver but overall, I am leaning towards more of a target practice type setup. If I’m wrong, well…losers for me! These types of setups don’t mean big hitters can’t win or prevail. Some big hitters play better when the course tells them how they need to play and takes driver out of hand. This is the exception, not the rule…but in general as golfers club down, accuracy improves. It’s more about “will distance be an advantage or not?” more than “will driving accuracy be an advantage?”. I think I’ll knock it up a little, but not heavy. Just as I’ll probably leave distance neutral.
It seems like it will be quite difficult which always suits the more talented and golfers who can “do it all” — which is a bit harder to find on the DPWT these days.
WMPO Picks
0.35u - Justin Thomas 21/1 (FD)
0.3u - Collin Morikawa 25/1 (DK)
0.15u - Cam Young 45/1 (DK)
0.12u - Taylor Montgomery 66/1 e.w.
0.05u - Lucas Herbert 150/1 (DK)
Top 5 - 0.075u - Lucas Herbert 18/1 (Kambi)
Top 20 - 0.8u - Taylor Montgomery +225 (DK)
Top 40 - 0.22u - Erik Van Rooyen +440 (FD)
Matchup - 1u - Emiliano Grillo +100 (vs Russell Knox) DK
Matchup - 1.12u - Shane Lowry -112 (vs Rickie Fowler) FD
Live - 0.15u - Xander Schauffele 20/1
Live - 0.15u - Adam Hadwin 26/1
If you saw my tweet Montgomery 60/1, that was correct. I bought it out and added the 66/1 e.w.
Singapore Classic Picks
0.35u - Alexander Bjork 28/1 (DK)
0.1u - Dan Bradbury 80/1 e.w.
0.07u - Daniel Brown 125/1 e.w.
Matchup - 1.15u - Thriston Lawrence -115 (vs Kiradech Aphibarnrat)
Astra Golf Championship Picks (KFT)
0.08u - Patrick Fishburn 100/1
0.05u - Nelson Ledesma 150/1
0.05u - Spencer Ralston 225/1
0.03u - Michael Feagles 350/1
0.02u - Clay Feagler 500/1
Top 5 - 0.08u - Patrick Fishburn 18/1
Top 5 - 0.05u - Nelson Ledesma 28/1
Top 5 - 0.05u - Spencer Ralston 40/1
Top 10 - 0.03u - Michael Feagles 25/1
Top 10 - 0.02u - Clay Feagler 35/1
LINKS (to other things I enjoy reading)
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Duertee Diapers Substack (golf picks w/ a twist!) - CLICK HERE
Public Results
2023 | -10.66u (-31.1%)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)