This is always a special week on the golf calendar and I often feel inadequate in what I have to share. Augusta National is quite possibly the most written and talked about golf course in the world. So while I will regurgitate many already known facts and course sentiments, I will do my best to stick my usual brief overarching thoughts on the course and what I believe can help lead to success at the years first major — The Masters.
The Masters Picks
0.5u - Brooks Koepka 21/1 (March)
0.3u - Wyndham Clark 34/1 (March)
0.3u- Shane Lowry 50/1
0.3u - Cam Young 55/1
0.15u - Ludvig Aberg 100/1 (September)
1.0u - Wyndham Clark +100 (vs Tony Finau) DK, Full Tourney
0.70u - Cam Young +170 (vs J. Thomas & C. Morikawa) DK, Full Tourney
As is tradition, I will use every boost across every account I have access…to bet Rory McIlroy with the heart. I do not endorse but it’s one of the few times a year I bet simply on what I want to happen as a fan.
I am looking at a few others and waiting to see how the numbers readjust on Sunday night/Monday morning (USA). I liked a Schauffele number earlier this week but it moved so holding off for now…I would also like to see where Shane Lowry falls. Currently I see 50 but it’s possible that opens up a bit more. Not to mention, if you like each-ways, generally more positions are awarded the week of, compared to futures (at least books I have access to). Cam Young is the third. You can save me the “he can’t win”…we win betting on losers every year!
Augusta National puts the full range of skills to the test however you do not need to historically be a good putter to have success. There are plenty of hypothesis for the reason behind this, while I believe that any course where putting is difficult with slopes, make holing more putts difficult in general.
Recovering from mistakes and avoiding double bogeys is a major plus at a course that can punish even the smallest misses. The tight lies around (buzz word) undulating greens will show any nerves in the short game and while fairways are easy to find, the runoffs around greens can at times make greens difficult to hold.
The only skill the course doesn’t test thorougly would be accuracy off the tee but there is still plenty of trouble for the field to find if they miss the generous fairways or try to cut dog legs unsuccessfully. I would side with distance over fairway finders but if golfers are missing below 70% of fairways, it generally has lead to a worse time at the course. Distance itself is not the only thing needed (just ask Bryson). How much of this is skewed by the olds? I’m not sure, I don’t have shot by shot to break it down further…plus I only have three years of Strokes Gained data to sift through.
Skill profile tl;dr — Gaining OTT is important, skewing towards distance over accuracy, approach play is the key, touch ARG will be tested, and being a historically great putter isn’t high on my list. Who knew?
There are rarely surprise winners at majors over the last 10 years, and particularly at The Masters. Some may point to Danny Willett and while that appears to be a flash in the pan, I will remind you he teed off ranked 18th in the world. Say what you will about the OWGR, but in 2016 it was a solid indicator of at least semi-recent performance and sustained performace over a 12-18 month period, even if it does weigh wins too much (imo).
That doesn’t mean longer odds can’t win — with heavy favorites, there will still be plenty of capable and not surprisng champions listed at triple digits and it’s also highly dependant of when said goflers were bet. So what’s the point of all of these words? Experience tends to matter, but again, a caveat…many young golfers are not quite in their prime and when referencing first time winners, or lackthere of, it needs to be remembered there are often not many debutant winners in general at majors (yes, I understand other majors rotate courses).
Wyndham Clark is making his first appearance at The Masters so many will point to this long drought of first time winners…but how many made their first appearance when they were already a major champion with three big wins on their resume? He is arguably playing as good of golf as anybody in the world not named Scottie Scheffler. He has the skills and mental fortitude needed to win the green jacket. He’s got distance (negative being erratic at times), and his irons are now a strentgh of his game. Ludvig Aberg will tee off at possibly 20/1, and while you may disagree with that, he’s still one of the best golfers in the world, with multiple wins and a Ryder Cup appearance…and will be making his first start at The Masters. Context matters. While I do value experience at The Masters, I thought the odds I was able to get on Clark and Aberg were worth gambling on despite having never played this tournament.
I don’t think Koepka needs a large explanation but I’ll divulge. It’s Brooks Koepka at a major. It’s not quite as simple as that but I’d be lying if it wasn’t a factor. There just aren’t many golfers who seem to be able to turn it on when it matters most. I don’t think his five majors are appreciated enough. There are only 19 other golfers who have ever acheived the feat. He is 33 and in the prime years of his career while showing the world last year that despite playing on LIV, the on-switch is still alive. His showing on LIV in 2024 have been middling since the hot start at Mayakoba but as I write this he’s off to a nice start at LIV Miami. He has all the experience needed at Augusta National to win, and he’s been close…it’s hard for me to not bet him at any major at these odds.
While I hope the week ends with a winning bet it’s always a magical week. The seven month drought of major golf is over. I hope everybody can watch as much of it as possible and your bets are prosperous!
If I add any props/matchups/etc. I will add them to the newsletter and likely tweet them out as well, where you can follow along if that’s your thing — @Axis_DFS
Good luck this week!
Public Results (as of 4.5.24)
2024 | +24.18u (46.5% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)
While I bet outright and play DFS a fair amount, the majority of my efforts are focused on Reignmakers on Draftkibgs. I will not bore you with the details; in short, you buy cards to create DFS lineups. But you own the cards; so you cannot go from Wyndham Clark to Rory week to week without a pretty big cost.
I typically play at the Legendary tier, which means my entries have to consist of 2 Legendary cards and 4 Elite. My Legendary cards as of right now are Aberg, Tom Kim and Denny. I have to bench Tom Kim in favor of Denny following that performance by Kim, correct?
The Elite cards I have are: Rory, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Will Zalatoris, Byeong Hun An, Taylor Moore and Eric Van Rooyen. Obviously, Rory is in. I am tempted to also roster Zalatoris, Lowry and….? I like Moore because of consistency, Connors because of his record at Augusta and Scott because of recent form (although the past month has diminished that). Beyond Rory, Lowry and Zalatoris, who would you pick to be the fourth member of my A Team roster?