Week 14: PGA Valero Texas Open Preview and Picks
LIV Miami, Augusta National Women's Amateur, LPGA Match Play
Finally! A fourth victory for the newsletter in 2024 but the first on the PGA Tour. I haven’t bet Jaeger often which feels nice to hit his maiden PGA victory. That is now the fourth tour we have found a winner on as we move forward towards The Masters…as always, full newsletter results are at the bottom of the page!
Before we jump into the PGA Tour, I’d like to share some brief thoughts on the Augusta National Women’s Amateur (ANWA).
If you haven’t tuned into this event I would highly encourage it. The field is full of the best amateur women in the world competing for the title. They plays rounds 1 and 2 at Champions Retreat, with the top 30 and ties from the first two rounds will play the final round at Augusta National. Rounds 1 and 2 are played Wednesday/Thursday, then a practice round at Augusta National on Friday, with the final round commencing on Saturday (and even if a golfer doesn’t make the cut, they get to play a practice round at Augusta National).
It’s wonderful to watch these athletes play Augusta National because you often see shots/part of the course you don’t often see the professional men playing from — but you’re still so familiar with the course. It’s truly a wonderful experience and you will see future LPGA stars in action.
ANWA Pick
0.4u - Mirabel Ting 18/1
Masters Futures
Brooks Koepka 21/1
Wyndham Clark 37/1
Ludvig Aberg 100/1 (from September)
Valero Texas Open Picks
0.15u - Keith Mitchell 60/1
0.15u - Aaron Rai 70/1
0.1u - Ryan Moore 125/1 e.w.
TPC San Antonio (Oaks)
You can hear the (fake) birds tweeting…but before the bliss, we must get through the Valero Texas Open.
Par 72: 7,438 yards
Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed
I’m always tinkering with how I format this, so apologies if you prefer consistency. This week I’m going to jump right into what stands out, historically.
Approach. Simple, right?
Overall, I don’t think driving is that important here, compared to the average week on the PGA Tour. Keep the ball on the course — finding greens from the rough is hardly more difficult than finding them from the fairway. The score gap, relative to par, also isn’t a wide gap. Great iron play is generally king most weeks, but even more so here. Corey Conners, defending champ and 2x winner, excels at consistent driving and top-notch iron play. Other recent winners, JJ Spaun and Jordan Spieth, also generally good with the irons (though Spieth can be wild OTT). Again, leaderboard reading of soley past winners is not always the best practice (but I have to write about something)!
I do not make many adjustements to baseline skill ratings for TPC San Antonio. It is not an easy course to score at and at times we have seen the winds pick up as well. I would check the winds closer to Thursday, particulalry if you’re a DFS player.
However, if you’re a subscriber to one of the many stat engines out there I would caution using wind filters (this is not me saying stat engines are not helpful). It can sometimes to hard to know whether you’re getting average wind speeds, gust speeds, or if a golfer even played in the wind that day depending on when they started the round. Lastly, there are not many super gusty days each year and the sample/stats pulled in using these filters could be years old. Again, use caution and make sure you’re aware of what you’re looking at.
Instead, I would simply lean heavier on approach play if winds are going to be up. The better control a golfer has of their irons, and to a degree the driver, the better than should be able to handle wind. I’m not saying there is no skill in playing in wind…I’m simply saying it could be difficult to see it in limited data sets!
Below are golfers that have a larger positive adjustment for me this week:
Collin Morikawa
Russell Henley
Hideki Matsuyama
Corey Conners
Tom Kim
Lucas Glover
Aaron Rai
Andrew Putnam
Ryan Moore
LIV Miami Picks
0.6u - Dustin Johnson 16/1
0.5u - Brooks Koepka 20/1
LPGA Match Play
0.25u - Jenny Shin 33/1
0.25u - Sarah Schmelzel 35/1
Public Results (3.31.24)
2024 | +24.18u (46.5% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)
Thanks for the Masters futures this week
Curious as to where you found Aberg at 100/1 though. Best I can find at any UK book is 28/1.