As I write this, we have a couple of golfers in position to make a run on Sunday (depending on what you followed). Gangjee is T2 in India, however he is four back to start the final round. Meanwhile, Keith Mitchell holed out on 18 for eagle to head into the final round with a two shot lead. Hopefully I will be editing my results at the bottom of the page with positive units Sunday evening with a third winner in a row for the newsletter.
Edit - Only way to describe what happened on Sunday. PAIN^^
The PGA Tour is making its first stop in Texas in 2024 with the playing of the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course. It is not the strongest field but Scheffler will be playing so plug your nose as you’re placing bets this week!
I generally keep these brief to begin with but more-so this week because I’d also like to highlight the course that will be played on the DPWT this week (it’s a doozy). But first - Memorial Park!
As always, I post my outright picks for all tours on X as well, where you can follow me @Axis_DFS
Houston Open Picks
0.2u - Keith Mitchell 45/1
0.2u - Stephan Jaeger 50/1
0.2u - Jake Knapp 66/1
Memorial Park Golf Course
Location: Houston Texas
Par 70: 7,412 yards
Greens: Poa trivialis overseed
The GCSAA sheet makes a note that they have had a dry spring which I am curious to see if the course plays firm or if they still lay the water to it and keep it relatively soft.
There are five par 3’s and only three par 5s this week, with #8 being 625 yards on the card. Three of the five par 3’s are quite short by PGA Tour standards (155, 167, 182) with the other two playing over 200 yards. The field will see a large variety of hole length this week putting a test to wedges and long irons more than the mid-range. There are a lot of long holes here and par will be a good score on most holes throughout the weekend.
In the first three tournaments played here only the latest Champion, Tony Finau, has finished lower than -13 under (he won at -16 in 2022; wasn’t played last year). It is lower scoring, in terms of relative to par, and the field average has been above par as well.
When saving par seems to be important, this typically put a bit more emphasis on scrambling/around the green — cleaning up those missed greens. The rough isn’t overly penal so blasting driver is the play and an advantage, particularly on the long par 5s and and the three par 4’s that are 490+ yards.
The course seems to set up quite well for three of the best golfers in the field; Scheffler, Finau, and Clark. Then again, the better the golfer, the better they can fit any field — and it helps this field isn’t as deep and there isn’t a course in the world that Scheffler isn’t the favorite at. I know that seems obvious but that doesn’t stop me from saying it. Below are golfers outside of the favorites that I believe Memorial Park sets up for and could out perform usual expectations/baseline ratings. Those with some distance, solid bogey avoidance, and a high amount of GIR.
Stephen Jaeger
Davis Thompson
Akshay Bhatia
Kevin Yu
Taylor Pendrith
Hero Indian Open
0.2u - Andy Sullivan 40/1
0.2u - Matthew Jordan 55/1
0.2u - Matthias Schwab 60/1
0.1/0.1u - Oliver Bekker 100/1 e.w. (6 places)
0.1/0.1u - Rahil Gangjee 150/1 e.w. (6 places)
0.05u - Manu Gandas 400/1
DLF Golf and Country Club (Player Course)
This course is funky.
It has a handful+ of tee boxes per hole to choose from, rolling fairways, massive (and deep) bunkers, blind greens on tiered plateaus, with spectacular looking rock wall facades, island greens, ponds bordering holes, one hell of a backstop into the par 5, 18th — and it’s quite long, measuring out at 7,654 yards. It is a sight to see on television (but I’m sure the field is not always thrilled).
Marcel Siem, Stephen Gallacher, Matt Wallace, and SSP Chawraisa are the four winners at this course when it has been used on the DPWT.
There are only two years worth of strokes gained data, tracked by caddies at that, but looking through it, the key is definitely surviving tee to green. There will be some massive scores by pro golf standards as things can get out of hand in a hurry here if a golfer isn’t on point tee to green. Eddie Pepperrell once tweeted this course was designed by Satan.
With that — I will be focusing on golfers in form, who rely heavily on their tee to green game more than putting, and perhaps it wouldn’t hurt to have played this course before. It may not help, but I have to think it’s better to know what you’re getting into at DLF Golf and Country Club.
LPGA Ford Championship Picks
0.20u - Megan Khang 40/1
0.15u - Gabi Ruffels 80/1
0.1u - Lucy Li 90/1 e.w.
0.10u - Albane Valenzuela 100/1WITHDRAW
LET Women’s New South Wales Open (3 rd tourney)
0.30u - Pauline Roussin Bouchard 25/1
0.15u - Sara Kouskova 66/1
0.10u/0.1u - Hayley Davis 100/1 e.w.
all at bet365
Public Results (3.25.24)
2024 | +16.78u (34% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)