Week 1: The Sentry
What did I miss?
Welcome back! If you have returned after my hiatus, (and abysmal tipping in 2023) thank you! If you’re new here, thank you for reading! There is no rhyme or reason to when I post or what I rant on about, so fair warning!
I’m not entirely sure of my plans for 2024 and this newsletter but like last year it will revolve around my thoughts on the golf world and bets I am placing for the tournaments.
I’ve thought about mixing in some more general betting talk as well…what exactly that will entail I’m not sure, but perhaps my thoughts/bets on other sports from time to time that I model (soccer/hockey) or just musing about betting as whole and doing your best to make some money from it. That can sometimes be boring since I understand this is entertainment/hobby for 99% of people out there…but that doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t attempt to make better bets!
However, THIS WEEK, is all about the Sentry Tournament (and the whales)!
We start the year off in a familiar place, the Plantation Course at Kapalua. The course itself, with no outside variables, does not present much of a challenge to the field. Without firmness and wind scores can and will approach -30 as we have seen before.
Par 73
7,596 yards
Bermuda greens
Renovated in 2019
ARCHITECT:Bill Coore / Ben Crenshaw
Humpback whale montages
Distance will be preferred to accuracy but we’ve seen a mix of champion skill-sets over the years. You can rip driver at wide fairways all over the property which may not create a giant advantage to extra length but it reduces any advantage shorter hitters would have by finding more fairways since even the bombers will be largely playing from the short-stuff. Relative to a standard week, this are not massive gains to be made driving the ball.
With the amount of fairways being hit and driver heavy there is a lack of long iron approach shots. More wedges means the greens have also historically been easy to find and puts emphasis on sticking it close and hitting the putts.
Easy courses reduce the total impact of a golfers ability to separate from the field based on skill and the emphasis on capitalizing on birdie putts will be key to stay within range of the top.
You know, if most of this sounds redundant — it is. There isn’t much that separates the best golfers in the world. Most anybody teeing it up is capable of firing a -8 round. The large difference is consistency. The best in the world consistently make less compounding errors. There are many variables every week that shift skill importance by fractions of strokes this way or that, but as always, the underlying talent wins out in the long run. But when we boil this game down to 2-4 rounds at a time, the range of outcomes is increased drastically.
So when I’m putting more emphasis on distance, wedges, putting, etc. — just know that it’s more the toppings on a pie, with overall skill being the filling. Of course we have course fit (crust), weather (how bumpy is the car ride bringing the pie to the party?) and many other things we don’t know due to golf being an individual sport, like is a golfer sick/hurt/trying a new swing/new equipment/travel issues/etc (this is like traffic on the way to the party?).
Ok, enough poor metaphors for the week.
The time away was freeing. Last year was disappointing on the golf side of things so we will see if we can right the ship or if I’m just another degenerate firing darts at the board.
The Sentry Picks
0.15u - Wyndham Clark 50/1
0.1u - J.T. Poston 100/1
Round 4: Scheffler (-125) vs Cantlay 1.25u
It’s hard to say when coming off of a break who will be rusty and who won’t. We play this guessing game every year and even sometimes during the season as well. But of course somebody has to win this event coming off of a break!
While he had a strong 2023 year it sputtered out a bit near the end for Clark. How much of that was exhaustion and mental depletion from getting his first win and parlaying that into his first major? Hard for me to say since I didn’t go back through his interviews to end the year but I’d imagine it played a part. We see this often enough when golfers finally break through whether it’s the first win, getting enough points for medical, first major…and a crash that follows. The relief. I also have a hard time holding the final 3 tournaments he played against him. He may have been collecting appearance fees in Spain and Japan or taking a vacation that included needing to tee it up on the weekends. Either way, I feel great about how Clark sets up for The Plantation Course. His accuracy OTT is usually a hindrance and shouldn’t be this week, while his distance should leave him the same, if not more, wedges in that the field. While you may not always feel it when watching, he is a strong putter with a tidy short game which could come in handy cleaning up when missing a GIR. I didn’t mention it up top but some touch ARG will be nice for the few missed greens or 3rd shots on par 5s.
Poston was playing about as well as anybody to end the season and into the swing season so I’m hoping whatever adjustment he made to his approach play carries over. His best skill has always been putting which will play a large factor when chasing scores into -25 range and as I mentioned, the massive improvement to his approach game. In 2021, he finished the losing almost 0.5 a stroke per round with this irons. He got that down to +0.0 at the end of 2022 and last year ended at about +0.40 strokes gained with his irons. That gives me reason to believe the work being put in was a long term change and not a flash in the pan we often see.
As always, good luck!
I may add a few live wagers from time to time so be sure to follow along on X, —> @axis_dfs
Public Results
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)