Sony Open Betting Picks and Preview
I remembered my password!
HELLO!
It’s been a minute. Life sometimes throws unforeseen obstacles, then coupled with vacation and golf tournaments I wasn’t overly interested in…it was quite the nice hiatus.
But hey, what’s life without some challenges? The main challenge of this newsletter — finding winners. Last year was quite exceptional and while I would love for it to repeat, another 70% ROI would be mind blowing…below are from the last 4 years of public posting across FTN and then I moved to this newsletter.
You can follow me on X/Twitter here!
Public Results (as of 9.3.24)
2024 | +70.62 (69.5% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)
Long term, just looking to be positive! The exploded ROI is because last year I switched to primarily betting outrights only and it happened to be a stellar year in that department. As you can see I won more units in 2022 with an ROI almost 50% lower because that success was heavily influenced by top 20’s and top 40’s, with less success on the outrights. That tends to happy chasing bets from 15/1 to 400/1.
If you’re new here, welcome, and I encourage you to perhaps peak through some posts from last year!
I’m not consistent in style. I was consistent posting, but the the depth of each article varies greatly (sorry). I travel a lot, my schedule seems to be forever changing and some weeks that means less effort into the actual words (always the same effort into the picks — I bet whatever is posted).
SONY OPEN PICKS
0.5u - Russell Henley 20/1
0.2u - Sepp Straka 50/1
0.2u - Cam Davis 60/1
0.2u - Daniel Berger 60/1
0.1u - Matti Schmid 225/1 + 0.1u - T5 40/1
While it seems more and more write ups are heavy on the course, mine are not. While each course presents a slightly different challenge than the last I think people can get drowned in the minutia. Unless you have precise data, shot by shot, and know what you’re doing with it…I always suggest scrapping that idea. If you had the data and the statistic knowledge you probably wouldn’t be reading this.
I still think it’s possible to make winning golf bets without sophisticated models. While I do use a statistical model and simulations for every tournament, it’s not necessary. Less is more if you don’t understand what you’re looking at and the context of the stats. Golf has HUNDREDS of data points…most of which are useless if you’re trying to make winning bets (in my opinion).
Stick with the fundamental, read a lot, and question what you read. There are some great (and not so) sites out there to help you along on that journey.
I’m just here to ramble and share picks…
It’s Wednesday morning and I’ve returned to trying to finish the newsletter. Sometimes such simple things become a struggle BUT the picks are in…
It’s a short par 70, coming it at 7,044 yards (near the low end for the pga tour) with only two par 4’s longer than 470 yards and both par 5’s are under 550 yards. The challenge is pin seeking and hitting the putt. Distance provides little advantage compared to an average course and while that means accuracy is preferred, that too, isn’t a true key to the week (as long as you’re not hitting the ball into the ocean).
A great short game (putting/around the green) has seemingly been a larger advantage than usual simply because a golfer is going to need to hit birdie putts and recover from the few missed greens they have. The greens are the most difficult part of the venue…but still not a great challenge, with putts from 10-15 ft, being the trickiest the course has to offer.
I know - it’s a very short, boring, and not wildly informative look at the course but I’m also not going to squeeze out 1,000 words for and open a Thesaurus to describe this course. You can find plenty of those articles out in the ethos if you would like more reading on Waialae CC.
Good luck this week, and be sure to follow along on X for any live betting opportunities because that is where I will post them (although generally I find more of those opportunities on the LPGA than the PGA).
