Phoenix Open Picks and Preview

and some personal news...

It was nice to find a winner on the DPWT last week with Laurie Canter (20/1) getting some help from his competition on 18 but he took full advantage on the first playoff hole, winning with a birdie. Time to try and start a streak this week…

It’s a fun week on the PGA Tour and I hope the Phoenix Open produces a nice sweat leading into the Super Bowl! It’s been a productive tournament for me in the past and hopefully that means my approach works (I also could just be incredibly lucky).

Also, there is some non-golf related words at the bottom I wanted to share this week.

Phoenix Open Picks

• 0.25u - Sepp Straka 45/1

• 0.25u - Bob MacIntyre 55/1

• 0.15u - Sam Stevens 80/1

• 0.10u - Nico Echavarria 250/1 (a future from weeks ago)

• 0.05u - Jake Knapp 400/1 (it’s probably gone, you can blame our friend Sky for tweeting it early)

I will be adding Top 5’s on these this week once more books post those odds.

You can follow me on X/Twitter here!

Public Results (as of 2.2.24)

• 2025 | +2.65 (46.1% ROI)

• 2024 | +70.62 (69.5% ROI)

• 2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)

• 2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)

• 2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)

Ah yes, the party in the desert. One of my (and many others) favorite weeks of the year. While I appreciate the pageantry of the 16th, that’s not why I like this event. In fact that hole/setting has become of charicature of itself. I do however, enjoy this course. While it’s not a challenge in the sense of preventing scoring, it’s a challenge in risk/reward — particularly the closing stretch.

Starting from the 13th to close, golfers will face two par 5’s, one of which is an island green approach, the famous Par 3-16th, and a drivable par 4 with water lurking all around. The 18th was made a bit more mundane after some changes but if there are nerves on the tee, bail out drives can still find a pew-lined bunker down the left or rolling hills of rough on the right.

The angle that I think gets frequently overlooked at TPC Scottsdale is the importance of finding fairways. Yes, it’s also friendly to bombers, however it’s one of the few courses on Tour where golfers can also find a sizable advantage playing from the fairway. Do both? You’re in for a potential great week!

The rough itself isn’t wildly difficult in terms of scoring or finding greens but as I mentioned earlier, at a risk/reward course, playing from the rough will impede on the risks being taken or make them immensely more risky. When people throw around the term “ball strikers paradise”, they should be refering to TPC Scottsdale. It truly is built for driver and iron supremacy.

Like last year I adjusted my skill ratings both distance and accuracy (in values of strokes gained per yard or fairway better than field) based on expectations I set. The key point —> I want to focus on good drivers of the golf ball. While I would prefer, they gain strokes through distance, accuracy is still good. I also adjusted up iron play in general, though would put the preference on 150-200 yards if you have that ability.

Jake Knapp is the small caveat, because the number was far too large. For as long as he is OTT, he can get a bit wild, which could spell trouble here.

Qatar Masters Picks

• 0.30u - Jorge Campillo 30/1

• 0.20u - Daniel Hillier 50/1

• 0.20u - Joe Dean 60/1

• 0.15u - Ivan Cantero 75/1

• 0.10u - Andrea Pavan 90/1

LPGA Founders Cup

• 0.60u - Minjee Lee 16/1 (market w/o Nelly, Lydia, JY Ko on FD)

• 0.30u - Brooke Henderson 30/1

• 0.20u - Nataliya Guseva 55/1

Non-Golf Related News.

I wrote/recorded an album.

Listen here on Spotify —

I write. It’s my medicine. My stress relief. I wasn’t sure if I would ever release it publicly but I believe it is the next best step for me. Everybody has “their shit” they deal with only a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis. I got caught in my own web over the last few years. I’ll keep most of the details to myself but I wasn’t a friendly person. I wasn’t a happy person. I was broken and I let it ruin parts of my life.

And then, in our small golf world, the Grayson Murray news broke last year and shook me. Not that I’m oblivious to these things, unfortunately, happening every day…but there are always those deaths/stories of strangers that hit you harder than others when you can see yourself in parts of the story.

You read about things like that and the commentary that follows — “talking about it” but it’s not that easy. It’s been almost a year since that tragic event sparked myself to possibly speak about it…and I have finally come around.

People’s pain/trauma/demons are uniquely personal. What hurts me or causes me to spiral may leave you scratching your head as to why it upsets me. Many people are able to process it all on their own. I made some weak attempts but in my head I kept telling myself I was just whining. Get over it. Figure it out. Move on. I generally still feel that way — which isn’t healthy. What is so bad? Why can’t you shake this? So being a writer at heart, I wrote about it. I kept it to myself and it wasn’t exactly helping.

So this is me…stepping out from the shadows and sharing a glimpse of my story.

It’s not for everybody, I understand that…I’m not asking for applause or reviews, I just need to share and I needed to try talking about it. This is me indirectly talking about it. If you feel compelled, drop me a line in a comment or DM and I’ll be sure to get back to you.

Now…back to golf.