John Deere Classic Picks and Preview
BMW International
The John Deere Classic.
I can’t say I have found memories of this event but I do appreciate it. While I don’t think the PGA Tour needs an event every week, I’m not asking for it to be erased. However, perhaps the FedEx Points need reworking (which is an opinion for a different day). That said, it’s another great opportunity, such as last week’s Rocket Mortgage, for new faces to arise and make a run at a trophy.
TPC Deere Run has been the host since the beginning of this tournament in 2000. The scores get low here, with the winner generally -19 to -21, unless you go on an all-time heater like Michael Kim in 2018, reaching -27 and winning by 8.
Generally when this is the case, putting plays a heavy roll, with golfers needing to convert the opportunities presented to them. That isn’t exactly the case at Deere Run, with so many opportunities for birdie available, and we’ve seen winner who are not exactly known for their putting prowess. While you can grip and rip here, there is a priority to finding the fairway. GIR rates are vastly higher, as well as birdie rates, when hitting approach shots from the fairway. It’s not that the rough itself is difficult, but being able to control spin/distance from the fairways here allows for pin seeking.
Truly nothing at this course has been an actual “test” for the field, routinely producing the easiest scores, relative to par, on tour, with 70% of fairways found, and GIR rates aobve 72%. Putts tend to go in at higher rates as well at key ranges inside 15 feet, and while perhaps scrambling off tight lies is the most difficult challenge, those who are chipping here often will find themselves behind the field in quick manner.
Due to the ease of play there hasn’t always been separation at this course and I anticipate another congested leaderboard late on Sunday. Much of the field has a better chance than usual coming into this week between the weak strength of field and how the course plays.
I’ll be sticking to my core numbers, with adjustments up for OTT and APP compared to baseline ratings.
John Deere Classic Picks
0.4u - Davis Thompson 25/1 each-way
BMW International
0.4u - Thomas Pieters 28/1
0.35u - Guido Migliozzi 35/1
0.1u - Joe Dean 100/1 each-way
Public Results (as of 7.2.23)
2024 | +35.75u (44.01% ROI)
2023 | -23.71u (-10.49% ROI)
2022 | +80.7u (22.9% ROI)
2021 | +57.46 (8.7% ROI)