2026 US Open Picks and Preview
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
US Open Picks
0.5u - Tommy Fleetwood 24.5/1
0.25u - Collin Morikawa 40/1 e.w. 1/4, 7 places
0.25u - Christ Gotterup 45/1 e.w. 1/4, 7 places
0.25u - Tyrrell Hatton 47/1 + T5 (no dead heat)
We are heading back to New York for the 2026 U.S. Open, being hosted at Shinnecock Hill Golf Club. The last US Open held here is mostly remembered for the USGA letting grass turn into concrete on the weekend and Phil Mickelson putting a ball before it stopped moving because he was over it.
Brooks Koepka was the champion, his second US Open victory in a row, overcoming the elements and dodging final round surge from Fleetwood who went out early before the winds were ripping and fired a -7. A lot has changed within the USGA since then and I would not anticipate seeing the course in the same condition.
(Speaking of Brooks he did withdraw in the final round last week so just be sure to check back in on Wednesday if you plan on using in DFS)
Having said that, I’m not sure how useful the data we have from that tournament will be (even if it was the same, it’s still only one tournaments worth of data) but yet I went through it anyway, because…well, mostly content!
The only thing that really stood out was how depressed SG OTT was that week, mostly driven by the lack of distance being a large advantage. I imagine that could be true again, given this isn’t the usual US Open test of skinny fairways and wrist-breaker rough. If you’re not familiar, Shinnecock Hills has a wonderful links feel to it, nestled on the eastern tip of Long Island, just off the coast.
Golfers also gained around and on the green more than a usual tournament, which also passes the common sense check. The more difficult the course, the more we generally see strokes being gained at a more even clip than usual among the four categories. I’d say a slight elevation to around the green is to be expected again, but still not more important than approach (it never will be).
Above is a graphic containing estimates of golfers profiles at links and majors/hard courses against my estimated skill ratings. Let’s be honest, I needed a graphic and this is fun and passes the eye test. The most subjective part of it (aside from if you think I know what I’m doing) is what I decided to use as “links” courses — I kept it pretty simple and didn’t sprinkle in the questionable ones. And no, I did not double up The Open Championship ratings for majors and links…for the purposes of the above graphic those tournaments were used as links only. That means for those who have excelled at The Open, that wasn’t captured in their “major” performance. You can argue with me about it but for a course like Shinnecock I’d rather comp it more directly to The Open than to other majors. All that to say…it’s still not quite a links course but I feel we’d be just nitpicking at that point.
One last note — be sure to check the forecast! As I mentioned, this course is located on a thing patch of land on the eastern tip of Long Island. Currently, the forecast is showing healthy and steady winds, especially on Thursday.
Did I think I’d be on four golfers under 50/1? No — but over the years I’ve learned that if you trust what you’re doing and can’t find anything in the math/errors then roll with it. Plus it is a major so it’s the safest time to be heavy on the mid-tier of the board if you’re not hitting a favorite.
Tommy Fleetwood is one of the cleanest fits for me this week and coming in with great form. Sure, he’s never won a major so the 24.5 seems steep but if I refused to bet on people who “don’t win/haven’t won” I would have missed quite a few winners. I could be close to break even if he wins because lord knows how often I’ve bet him at majors but that’s not the point! He’s excelled on links(y) courses and shows up when the course fights back. He scrambles well, reliable irons, and doesn’t often leak away shots from the tee box.
The most important reason for Morikawa making this card is his iron play (which I will admit, has fluttered his last few tournaments) but he has the pedigree I like to back in majors as well. Another golfer who seems to play better in majors than his overall talent rating and I’m banking on that more thank his links history. Despite having won The Open, his other limited trials overseas have been less than stellar. I’m hoping he finds the pocket his was in coming into, and out of, The Masters.
Gotterup is my most speculative play this week, considering I don’t think his distance will be the advantage it is most weeks. He’s playing the best golf of his career and his irons have been fantastic all year. A little weak in the ARG department but has made up for it with his putting. And while his distance may not gain him as many strokes this week, I’m hoping the wide-ish fairways help him find more than usual and let those irons set himself up to hang around come Sunday.
Hatton might be my favorite bet, simply because of the number. He’s coming off of a LIV victory and if the numbers can be believed, his ball striking the last month has been elite. He’s also one of the few LIV golfers who since transitioning to that tour, has continued to also play well in majors. His putter, usually reliable, has been a let down this year and that is troubling, however, putting can also be streaky and there have been signs of life (I’ll tell myself that to feel better about it).